The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market is showing signs of life, but it still has a long way to go to return to pre-pandemic levels. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), November saw an increase in both home sales and prices. However, these gains are tempered by an unusually high level of inventory, which continues to rise. This dynamic suggests that fear of missing out (FOMO) may be driving some buyers back into the market, even though sales remain below normal monthly averages.

Home prices made a slight but potentially significant improvement in November. The benchmark home price rose by 0.1% ($1,400) to $1,061,700. While this figure is still 1.8% lower than a year ago, it marks the first monthly price increase since March, breaking an eight-month streak of declines. Though one month of growth does not indicate a market rebound, it could signal the beginning of a stabilization trend. Notably, the year-over-year price gap is narrowing, representing the smallest decline since April.

Sales activity also experienced a sharp recovery, with 5,875 homes sold in November—a 40% increase from last year. This improvement, however, needs context. While the jump seems significant, it remains historically weak. Sales were 35% lower than in November 2021 and 17% below 2019 levels, even before accounting for population growth. These figures suggest demand is recovering but still far from returning to pre-pandemic norms.

On the supply side, the market witnessed an unusually high influx of new listings for November, with 11,656 homes hitting the market—a 7% increase from last year. This surge brought active inventory to 21,818 listings, a 30% year-over-year increase. November’s inventory levels are unprecedented for the month, exceeding even the peak levels of May’s typically busier spring market.

Despite this high inventory, rising prices suggest some buyers are feeling pressured to act quickly, potentially driven by pent-up demand. However, the elevated supply raises questions about whether this uptick is sustainable or merely a short-term reaction.

Concluding Summary
While the GTA real estate market is showing signs of improvement, it remains in a state of flux. The slight rise in prices and surge in sales activity are encouraging, but high inventory levels and historically weak demand temper the optimism. The coming months will reveal whether the market is truly stabilizing or experiencing a temporary shift.

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